eVTOL and Advanced Air Mobility in 2025–2026: Market Valuation Is Converging, Execution Is Differentiating
The last decade in the eVTOL market saw a rapid rise in expectations, followed by a need to adjust to reality. The sector's market valuation did not crash. Instead, the industry's confidence shifted regarding how quickly advanced air mobility (AAM) can become regular, regulated operations at scale.
This distinction is important because the term "eVTOL market" is often used inaccurately.
The aircraft-only market, which includes manufacturing and sales, is one aspect. What many investors and companies refer to is the whole-market valuation, which includes AAM: passenger services, cargo operations, heavy-lift drone applications, and the ecosystem needed for reliable operation.
Whole-market valuation: current figures
Recent market-sizing studies show that AAM is increasingly seen as a mid‑2020s market worth tens of billions, with significant growth expected in the 2030s. Right now, the market is valued more like an emerging transport and logistics category rather than a fully developed urban mobility network.
Two independent forecasts highlight this trend: one estimates the AAM market at about $11.4 billion in 2024, growing to $87.8 billion by 2034. The other estimates it at $13.27 billion in 2025, $16.55 billion in 2026, and $87.0 billion by 2034.
The differences are typical for a market still figuring itself out, but both forecasts show a similar upward trend. There is an expectation of significant growth, but it is not seen as immediate or easy.
That is the "plateau" some observers describe. It is not a stagnant market but rather a stabilisation of near‑term valuation assumptions after earlier excitement.
Why the valuation framework changed: regulation shapes the market
AAM's valuation is now more affected by clear regulatory advancements than by broad adoption stories.
In the U.S., the FAA's powered‑lift integration framework has moved from uncertainty to a clear structure that outlines how this aircraft type fits into certification and operations. In Europe, EASA's SC‑VTOL compliance guidance is also evolving through ongoing Means of Compliance publications, which clarify evidence requirements.
The outcome is a more stable valuation environment: markets can now assess progress based on milestones instead of slogans.
Commercial reality: early markets will focus on specific routes, not citywide services
The initial phase of revenue building will focus on routes and use cases that promote operational discipline:
- Fixed‑node corridors (such as airport transfers and other consistent links)
- Point‑to‑point premium routes where demand and constraints are manageable
- Logistics and public services where timing and access justify pricing and utilisation
This route‑focused strategy is not a compromise. It reflects how aviation companies grow: begin where repeatability is achievable, then expand as reliability and economics are proven.
Unit economics: growth is linked to utilisation
The long‑term valuations for AAM depend on operational factors rather than prototype performance:
- Utilisation (hours per aircraft per day)
- Turnaround time (charging, dispatch rhythm, passenger/cargo handling)
- Battery lifecycle economics (degradation, replacement timing)
- Maintenance costs and dispatch reliability
- Infrastructure expenses (power availability, staffing, access fees, permitting)
These factors determine whether early deployments can turn into scalable networks or remain niche services. They also clarify why valuation forecasts have evolved: the market is increasingly evaluated based on the chance of repeatable operations instead of merely the possibility of flight.
In summary, whole‑market valuation for AAM is now discussed in a more structured manner. The base for mid‑2020s estimates is in the low‑to‑mid tens of billions, with significant growth expected in the 2030s depending on certification, infrastructure development, and route economics. The sector's outlook stays positive, but market assumptions have become more conditional and measurable.
